Rewrite as a probabilistic model with walk-forward evaluation.

Replace the 2024 model (model.py, ~2000 lines) with the btcmodel package, the
baseline for future work:

- Forecasts are quantiles of log price at each horizon, scored with CRPS in a
  walk-forward backtest (origins every 30 days from 2014, horizons 1 month to
  4 years). Skill is relative to a zero-drift random walk, with circular
  block-bootstrap intervals and a count of independent windows.
- Development data stops at 2024-11-26, the last day the 2024 model saw.
  Later outcomes are a holdout, scored only by `backtest --holdout`.
- Models: random_walk, drift_rw, and cycle (the 2024 model's cycle-position
  drift, now kernel-smoothed and recency-weighted). On development data
  nothing beats the random walk with confidence; cycle loses at every horizon.
- Prices: the Investing.com archive moves to data/ (cut at 2024-11-26; its
  last row was intraday) and is extended with Coinbase daily closes by
  `update`.

Also: Nix flake dev shell (Python 3.13, pandas 3), ruff in place of black,
pytest suite, and a rewritten README. NOTES.md is removed as inaccurate, and
poetry is dropped.

flake.nix

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+{
+  description = "Bitcoin price model";
+
+  inputs.nixpkgs.url = "github:NixOS/nixpkgs/nixpkgs-unstable";
+
+  outputs =
+    { self, nixpkgs }:
+    let
+      systems = [
+        "aarch64-darwin"
+        "x86_64-darwin"
+        "aarch64-linux"
+        "x86_64-linux"
+      ];
+      forAllSystems = f: nixpkgs.lib.genAttrs systems (system: f nixpkgs.legacyPackages.${system});
+    in
+    {
+      devShells = forAllSystems (pkgs: {
+        default = pkgs.mkShell {
+          packages = [
+            (pkgs.python313.withPackages (ps: [
+              ps.numpy
+              ps.pandas
+              ps.scipy
+              ps.matplotlib
+              ps.pytest
+            ]))
+            pkgs.ruff
+            pkgs.just
+          ];
+        };
+      });
+
+      formatter = forAllSystems (pkgs: pkgs.nixfmt);
+    };
+}