Forward test: record forecasts before their outcomes exist.

`snapshot` writes each tracked model's forecast quantiles at the seven backtest horizons from the latest price to data/forecasts/<origin>.csv. It refuses stale data (older than two days) and duplicate dates, so snapshots can't be reconstructed after the fact; committing them dates them. `forward` scores every recorded forecast whose target date has passed, reusing the backtest's scoring (now factored out as evaluate.score). Tracked: random_walk, drift_rw, cycle, powerlaw, plus powerlaw_ou, powerlaw_ou_param and cycle_on_powerlaw, which development data couldn't settle. `just weekly` runs update, snapshot and forward. First snapshot: 2026-09-23 (BTC $84.4K). The first outcomes are due 2026-10-23.
2026-09-24 03:08:30 -07:00
parent 082bcfbbbc
commit 67d016fe25
7 changed files with 316 additions and 19 deletions
@@ -123,6 +123,23 @@ at 2-3 years (mean PIT 0.53-0.56) but with intervals too wide (its 80% interval
 held every 2- and 3-year outcome). The holdout is now spent for these models;
 a new model needs new data to be tested honestly.
 ### Forward test (from 2026-09-23)
 New data is the only honest test left, so forecasts are now recorded before
 their outcomes exist. `just snapshot` writes every tracked model's forecast
 from the latest price to `data/forecasts/<date>.csv`. It refuses if the price
 data is more than two days old or the date already has a snapshot, and the
 files are committed so version control dates them. `just forward` scores
 every recorded forecast whose target date has passed, the same way the
 backtest does.
 Tracked: the four registered models plus `powerlaw_ou`, `powerlaw_ou_param`
 and `cycle_on_powerlaw`, which development data couldn't settle. Snapshots
 store the forecasts themselves, so if a model's definition changes it gets a
 new name. The routine is `just weekly` (update, snapshot, score), then commit
 the new snapshot. The first 1-month outcomes arrive 2026-10-23; 1-year results
 need until late 2027, and 4-year ones until 2030.
 ## Usage
 With Nix:
@@ -133,6 +150,7 @@ just update     # fetch new daily prices from Coinbase
 just backtest   # score models on development data -> output/backtest/
 just forecast   # forecast from the latest price -> output/forecast/
 just ab         # run A/B experiments -> output/ab/
 just weekly     # new prices, a forward-test snapshot, and its scores so far
 just test
 just holdout    # score on held-out outcomes; sparingly
 ```
@@ -149,6 +167,7 @@ btcmodel/
  forecast.py   Forecast (quantiles of log price), CRPS, PIT
  evaluate.py   walk-forward backtest and summary
  experiments.py  A/B tests: hypothesis, control, variants, verdict rule
  forward.py    forward test: record forecasts, score them as outcomes arrive
  models/       drift, volatility and shape components; register models in __init__.py
  plots.py      fan chart, skill and calibration charts
 ```
@@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ Command line entry point.
    python -m btcmodel backtest --holdout  score models on outcomes after DEV_CUTOFF
    python -m btcmodel forecast            forecast from the latest price
    python -m btcmodel ab [NAME ...]       run A/B experiments on development data
    python -m btcmodel snapshot            record tracked models' forecasts for the forward test
    python -m btcmodel forward             score recorded forecasts whose targets have passed
 """
 import argparse
@@ -14,7 +16,7 @@ from pathlib import Path
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
-from . import data, evaluate, experiments, plots
+from . import data, evaluate, experiments, forward, plots
 from .models import MODELS
 FORECAST_REPORT_HORIZONS = (182, 365, 730, 1095, 1460)
@@ -36,6 +38,8 @@ def main() -> None:
    commands.add_parser("forecast", help="forecast from the latest price")
    ab = commands.add_parser("ab", help="run A/B experiments on development data")
    ab.add_argument("names", nargs="*", help="experiments to run (default: all)")
    commands.add_parser("snapshot", help="record forecasts for the forward test")
    commands.add_parser("forward", help="score recorded forecasts")
    args = parser.parse_args()
    if args.command == "ab" and (unknown := set(args.names) - set(experiments.EXPERIMENTS)):
        parser.error(f"unknown experiments: {', '.join(sorted(unknown))}")
@@ -50,6 +54,10 @@ def main() -> None:
        run_forecast(models, args.output)
    elif args.command == "ab":
        run_ab(args.names or list(experiments.EXPERIMENTS), args.output)
    elif args.command == "snapshot":
        run_snapshot()
    elif args.command == "forward":
        run_forward(args.output)
 def run_backtest(models, output: Path, holdout: bool) -> None:
@@ -112,6 +120,46 @@ def run_ab(names: list[str], output: Path) -> None:
    (output / "ab" / "verdicts.txt").write_text(table + "\n")
 def run_snapshot() -> None:
    prices = data.load_prices()
    path = forward.snapshot(prices)
    recorded = [(m, f) for m, f in forward.load_snapshots() if f.origin == prices.index[-1]]
    medians = pd.DataFrame(
        {m: [plots.price_formatter(p) for p in np.exp(f.quantile(0.5))] for m, f in recorded},
        index=[evaluate.horizon_label(h) for h in evaluate.HORIZONS],
    ).T
    print(
        f"recorded {len(recorded)} models' forecasts from {prices.index[-1]:%Y-%m-%d} in {path}\n"
    )
    print("medians:\n" + medians.to_string())
 def run_forward(output: Path) -> None:
    prices = data.load_prices()
    scores = forward.score_snapshots(prices)
    due = forward.next_due(prices)
    if scores.empty:
        when = f"; the first is due {due:%Y-%m-%d}" if due is not None else ""
        print(f"no recorded forecast has reached its target date yet{when}")
        return
    out = output / "forward"
    out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    summary = evaluate.summarize(scores, step_days=forward.SNAPSHOT_STEP_DAYS)
    report = (
        f"forward test: {scores.origin.nunique()} snapshots from {scores.origin.min():%Y-%m-%d}, "
        f"outcomes through {prices.index[-1]:%Y-%m-%d}\n\n" + evaluate.format_summary(summary)
    )
    if due is not None:
        report += f"\n\nnext outcome due {due:%Y-%m-%d}"
    print(report)
    (out / "report.txt").write_text(report + "\n")
    scores.to_csv(out / "scores.csv", index=False)
    summary.to_csv(out / "summary.csv", index=False)
    plots.skill_chart(summary, out / "skill.png", "forward test: skill by horizon")
    plots.calibration_chart(summary, out / "calibration.png", "forward test: interval coverage")
    print(f"\nwrote {out}/")
 def run_forecast(models, output: Path) -> None:
    prices = data.load_prices()
    horizons = np.arange(1, max(FORECAST_REPORT_HORIZONS) + 1)
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ influence model design. The holdout run scores only targets after DEV_CUTOFF.
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
-from .forecast import crps, pit
+from .forecast import Forecast, crps, pit
 from .models import BASELINE
 HORIZONS = np.array([30, 91, 182, 365, 730, 1095, 1460])
@@ -38,10 +38,15 @@ def backtest(
        history = data.loc[:origin]
        outcome = log_close.loc[targets[scored]].to_numpy()
        for model in models:
-            f = model.forecast(history, horizons[scored])
+            rows.append(score(model.name, model.forecast(history, horizons[scored]), outcome))
    return pd.concat(rows, ignore_index=True)
 def score(model: str, f: Forecast, outcome: np.ndarray) -> pd.DataFrame:
    """Score one forecast against the observed log prices at its horizons."""
    row = {
-                "model": model.name,
+        "model": model,
-                "origin": origin,
+        "origin": f.origin,
        "horizon": f.horizons,
        "outcome": outcome,
        "median": f.quantile(0.5),
@@ -51,18 +56,21 @@ def backtest(
    for c in COVERAGES:
        lo, hi = f.interval(c)
        row[f"in{c:.0%}"] = (lo <= outcome) & (outcome <= hi)
-            rows.append(pd.DataFrame(row))
+    return pd.DataFrame(row)
    return pd.concat(rows, ignore_index=True)
 def summarize(
-    scores: pd.DataFrame, baseline: str = BASELINE, n_boot: int = 2000, seed: int = 0
+    scores: pd.DataFrame,
    baseline: str = BASELINE,
    step_days: int = ORIGIN_STEP_DAYS,
    n_boot: int = 2000,
    seed: int = 0,
 ) -> pd.DataFrame:
    """
    Per model and horizon: mean CRPS, skill relative to `baseline`, and coverage.
    Skill is 1 - CRPS / baseline CRPS (positive = better than the baseline),
-    with a 90% moving-block bootstrap interval over origins. Forecasts from
+    with a 90% block bootstrap interval over origins spaced `step_days` apart. Forecasts from
    nearby origins overlap heavily, so `windows` (the span covered divided by
    the horizon) is the honest count of independent outcomes. Treat intervals
    with fewer than ~5 windows as optimistic.
@@ -72,7 +80,7 @@ def summarize(
    for horizon, at_h in scores.groupby("horizon"):
        base = at_h[at_h.model == baseline].set_index("origin")["crps"].sort_index()
        span = (base.index[-1] - base.index[0]).days + horizon
-        block = max(1, min(int(np.ceil(horizon / ORIGIN_STEP_DAYS)), len(base) // 2))
+        block = max(1, min(int(np.ceil(horizon / step_days)), len(base) // 2))
        boot_index = _block_bootstrap_indices(len(base), block, n_boot, rng)
        for model, g in at_h.groupby("model", sort=False):
            m = g.set_index("origin")["crps"].reindex(base.index).to_numpy()
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
 """
 Forward test: forecasts recorded before their outcomes exist.
 `snapshot` stores every tracked model's forecast from the latest price in
 data/forecasts/<origin>.csv. The files are committed, so version control shows
 each one was written before its outcome was known. `score_snapshots` grades
 every recorded forecast whose target date has passed, exactly as the backtest
 does.
 Snapshots store the forecast quantiles themselves, so model code can change
 without rewriting the record. If a model's definition changes, give it a new
 name rather than reusing the old one.
 """
 import datetime as dt
 from pathlib import Path
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 from .data import DATA_DIR
 from .evaluate import HORIZONS, score
 from .experiments import EXPERIMENTS
 from .forecast import LEVELS, Forecast
 from .models import MODELS
 FORECASTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / "forecasts"
 # A snapshot must be made from fresh data, not reconstructed after the fact.
 MAX_DATA_AGE_DAYS = 2
 # Intended cadence (weekly), used to size bootstrap blocks when scoring.
 SNAPSHOT_STEP_DAYS = 7
 _VARIANTS = {m.name: m for e in EXPERIMENTS.values() for m in e.models}
 # The registered models, plus candidates that could only be settled on new data.
 TRACKED = [
    *MODELS.values(),
    *(_VARIANTS[n] for n in ("powerlaw_ou", "powerlaw_ou_param", "cycle_on_powerlaw")),
 ]
 # Named by percentile: p0.5, p1.5, ..., p99.5 (the grid has no exact median).
 _QUANTILE_COLUMNS = [f"p{100 * level:.1f}" for level in LEVELS]
 def snapshot(
    prices: pd.DataFrame,
    models=TRACKED,
    directory: Path = FORECASTS_DIR,
    today: pd.Timestamp | None = None,
 ) -> Path:
    """Record each model's forecast from the last price in `prices`."""
    origin = prices.index[-1]
    if today is None:
        today = pd.Timestamp(dt.datetime.now(dt.UTC).date())
    if (today - origin).days > MAX_DATA_AGE_DAYS:
        raise ValueError(
            f"latest price is from {origin:%Y-%m-%d}; update the data first "
            "(forecasts must be recorded in real time)"
        )
    path = directory / f"{origin:%Y-%m-%d}.csv"
    if path.exists():
        raise FileExistsError(f"{path} already exists")
    frames = []
    for model in models:
        f = model.forecast(prices, HORIZONS)
        frame = pd.DataFrame(f.log_quantiles, columns=_QUANTILE_COLUMNS)
        frame.insert(0, "model", model.name)
        frame.insert(1, "horizon", f.horizons)
        frame.insert(2, "target", f.dates.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))
        frames.append(frame)
    directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
    pd.concat(frames).to_csv(path, index=False, float_format="%.6f")
    return path
 def load_snapshots(directory: Path = FORECASTS_DIR) -> list[tuple[str, Forecast]]:
    """Every recorded forecast, as (model name, Forecast)."""
    forecasts = []
    for path in sorted(directory.glob("*.csv")):
        origin = pd.Timestamp(path.stem)
        for model, g in pd.read_csv(path).groupby("model", sort=False):
            quantiles = g[_QUANTILE_COLUMNS].to_numpy()
            forecasts.append((model, Forecast(origin, g["horizon"].to_numpy(), quantiles)))
    return forecasts
 def score_snapshots(prices: pd.DataFrame, directory: Path = FORECASTS_DIR) -> pd.DataFrame:
    """Score every recorded forecast horizon whose target date is in `prices`."""
    log_close = np.log(prices["close"])
    rows = []
    for model, f in load_snapshots(directory):
        due = f.dates <= prices.index[-1]
        if not due.any():
            continue
        due_forecast = Forecast(f.origin, f.horizons[due], f.log_quantiles[due])
        outcome = log_close.loc[due_forecast.dates].to_numpy()
        rows.append(score(model, due_forecast, outcome))
    return pd.concat(rows, ignore_index=True) if rows else pd.DataFrame()
 def next_due(prices: pd.DataFrame, directory: Path = FORECASTS_DIR) -> pd.Timestamp | None:
    """The earliest target date not yet observed, if any."""
    pending = [d for _, f in load_snapshots(directory) for d in f.dates if d > prices.index[-1]]
    return min(pending) if pending else None
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
 model,horizon,target,p0.5,p1.5,p2.5,p3.5,p4.5,p5.5,p6.5,p7.5,p8.5,p9.5,p10.5,p11.5,p12.5,p13.5,p14.5,p15.5,p16.5,p17.5,p18.5,p19.5,p20.5,p21.5,p22.5,p23.5,p24.5,p25.5,p26.5,p27.5,p28.5,p29.5,p30.5,p31.5,p32.5,p33.5,p34.5,p35.5,p36.5,p37.5,p38.5,p39.5,p40.5,p41.5,p42.5,p43.5,p44.5,p45.5,p46.5,p47.5,p48.5,p49.5,p50.5,p51.5,p52.5,p53.5,p54.5,p55.5,p56.5,p57.5,p58.5,p59.5,p60.5,p61.5,p62.5,p63.5,p64.5,p65.5,p66.5,p67.5,p68.5,p69.5,p70.5,p71.5,p72.5,p73.5,p74.5,p75.5,p76.5,p77.5,p78.5,p79.5,p80.5,p81.5,p82.5,p83.5,p84.5,p85.5,p86.5,p87.5,p88.5,p89.5,p90.5,p91.5,p92.5,p93.5,p94.5,p95.5,p96.5,p97.5,p98.5,p99.5
 random_walk,30,2026-10-23,11.007321,11.060207,11.087595,11.106893,11.122080,11.134750,11.145711,11.155431,11.164207,11.172239,11.179670,11.186606,11.193124,11.199288,11.205145,11.210737,11.216095,11.221247,11.226215,11.231019,11.235676,11.240199,11.244602,11.248895,11.253088,11.257190,11.261209,11.265151,11.269023,11.272831,11.276580,11.280275,11.283920,11.287520,11.291077,11.294596,11.298080,11.301533,11.304956,11.308354,11.311727,11.315081,11.318415,11.321734,11.325038,11.328332,11.331616,11.334892,11.338164,11.341432,11.344699,11.347968,11.351239,11.354516,11.357800,11.361093,11.364398,11.367716,11.371051,11.374404,11.377778,11.381175,11.384599,11.388051,11.391535,11.395054,11.398612,11.402211,11.405856,11.409551,11.413300,11.417108,11.420980,11.424923,11.428941,11.433044,11.437237,11.441530,11.445932,11.450456,11.455112,11.459916,11.464884,11.470036,11.475394,11.480986,11.486844,11.493007,11.499526,11.506461,11.513892,11.521925,11.530701,11.540420,11.551381,11.564051,11.579238,11.598536,11.625925,11.678811
 random_walk,91,2026-12-23,10.758317,10.850425,10.898127,10.931737,10.958187,10.980254,10.999344,11.016272,11.031556,11.045546,11.058489,11.070568,11.081920,11.092655,11.102857,11.112596,11.121928,11.130901,11.139554,11.147921,11.156030,11.163908,11.171576,11.179053,11.186356,11.193500,11.200500,11.207366,11.214110,11.220742,11.227272,11.233707,11.240055,11.246324,11.252520,11.258649,11.264717,11.270730,11.276692,11.282609,11.288486,11.294325,11.300133,11.305913,11.311669,11.317404,11.323124,11.328830,11.334528,11.340220,11.345911,11.351603,11.357301,11.363008,11.368727,11.374463,11.380218,11.385998,11.391806,11.397646,11.403522,11.409439,11.415401,11.421414,11.427482,11.433611,11.439807,11.446076,11.452424,11.458859,11.465389,11.472021,11.478766,11.485632,11.492631,11.499775,11.507078,11.514555,11.522223,11.530101,11.538211,11.546578,11.555230,11.564203,11.573535,11.583274,11.593476,11.604211,11.615564,11.627642,11.640585,11.654575,11.669859,11.686788,11.705878,11.727944,11.754395,11.788005,11.835706,11.927815
 random_walk,182,2027-03-24,10.516106,10.646367,10.713827,10.761359,10.798765,10.829972,10.856969,10.880910,10.902525,10.922309,10.940613,10.957695,10.973750,10.988932,11.003360,11.017133,11.030330,11.043019,11.055256,11.067089,11.078558,11.089699,11.100543,11.111117,11.121445,11.131548,11.141447,11.151157,11.160695,11.170074,11.179309,11.188409,11.197387,11.206252,11.215015,11.223683,11.232264,11.240768,11.249200,11.257568,11.265878,11.274137,11.282350,11.290524,11.298664,11.306775,11.314863,11.322934,11.330992,11.339042,11.347089,11.355140,11.363197,11.371268,11.379356,11.387468,11.395608,11.403781,11.411995,11.420253,11.428564,11.436931,11.445364,11.453867,11.462449,11.471117,11.479879,11.488744,11.497722,11.506823,11.516057,11.525436,11.534974,11.544685,11.554583,11.564687,11.575015,11.585589,11.596433,11.607573,11.619042,11.630875,11.643112,11.655801,11.668999,11.682771,11.697200,11.712381,11.728436,11.745518,11.763822,11.783606,11.805222,11.829162,11.856159,11.887366,11.924773,11.972304,12.039765,12.170026
 random_walk,365,2027-09-23,10.171962,10.356432,10.451966,10.519279,10.572251,10.616446,10.654678,10.688581,10.719192,10.747210,10.773131,10.797321,10.820058,10.841557,10.861990,10.881494,10.900184,10.918154,10.935483,10.952240,10.968482,10.984259,10.999615,11.014590,11.029216,11.043524,11.057542,11.071293,11.084800,11.098083,11.111160,11.124048,11.136762,11.149317,11.161726,11.174001,11.186154,11.198196,11.210137,11.221987,11.233756,11.245451,11.257083,11.268658,11.280186,11.291673,11.303127,11.314556,11.325967,11.337367,11.348764,11.360164,11.371575,11.383004,11.394459,11.405946,11.417473,11.429049,11.440680,11.452376,11.464144,11.475994,11.487935,11.499977,11.512130,11.524406,11.536814,11.549369,11.562083,11.574971,11.588048,11.601331,11.614838,11.628589,11.642607,11.656915,11.671541,11.686516,11.701872,11.717650,11.733892,11.750648,11.767978,11.785947,11.804637,11.824142,11.844574,11.866073,11.888810,11.913000,11.938922,11.966939,11.997550,12.031454,12.069686,12.113880,12.166853,12.234165,12.329699,12.514169
 random_walk,730,2028-09-22,9.686875,9.947755,10.082861,10.178055,10.252970,10.315470,10.369538,10.417485,10.460775,10.500398,10.537056,10.571267,10.603421,10.633826,10.662721,10.690305,10.716736,10.742149,10.766657,10.790354,10.813324,10.835636,10.857354,10.878531,10.899215,10.919450,10.939274,10.958722,10.977824,10.996608,11.015102,11.033328,11.051309,11.069064,11.086612,11.103972,11.121159,11.138189,11.155076,11.171835,11.188478,11.205018,11.221468,11.237838,11.254140,11.270385,11.286584,11.302747,11.318885,11.335007,11.351124,11.367247,11.383384,11.399548,11.415746,11.431992,11.448294,11.464664,11.481113,11.497653,11.514296,11.531055,11.547942,11.564972,11.582159,11.599519,11.617068,11.634823,11.652803,11.671029,11.689523,11.708308,11.727410,11.746857,11.766681,11.786916,11.807601,11.828778,11.850495,11.872808,11.895777,11.919474,11.943982,11.969395,11.995827,12.023410,12.052306,12.082710,12.114865,12.149075,12.185733,12.225356,12.268646,12.316593,12.370662,12.433162,12.508076,12.603271,12.738376,12.999256
 random_walk,1095,2029-09-22,9.314655,9.634166,9.799636,9.916225,10.007976,10.084523,10.150743,10.209465,10.262485,10.311013,10.355910,10.397809,10.437190,10.474427,10.509818,10.543600,10.575972,10.607097,10.637112,10.666135,10.694267,10.721594,10.748192,10.774129,10.799462,10.824245,10.848524,10.872342,10.895737,10.918744,10.941394,10.963716,10.985738,11.007483,11.028976,11.050237,11.071287,11.092144,11.112827,11.133352,11.153735,11.173993,11.194139,11.214188,11.234154,11.254050,11.273890,11.293685,11.313450,11.333196,11.352935,11.372681,11.392446,11.412242,11.432081,11.451977,11.471943,11.491992,11.512139,11.532396,11.552780,11.573305,11.593987,11.614845,11.635894,11.657155,11.678648,11.700394,11.722415,11.744738,11.767388,11.790394,11.813789,11.837607,11.861886,11.886669,11.912002,11.937939,11.964537,11.991864,12.019996,12.049019,12.079035,12.110160,12.142531,12.176314,12.211704,12.248941,12.288323,12.330222,12.375119,12.423647,12.476666,12.535389,12.601609,12.678155,12.769907,12.886495,13.051965,13.371476
 random_walk,1460,2030-09-22,9.000859,9.369798,9.560867,9.695492,9.801437,9.889825,9.966290,10.034097,10.095318,10.151353,10.203196,10.251577,10.297051,10.340049,10.380914,10.419922,10.457302,10.493242,10.527901,10.561414,10.593898,10.625452,10.656165,10.686114,10.715366,10.743983,10.772019,10.799521,10.826535,10.853101,10.879255,10.905030,10.930459,10.955568,10.980386,11.004936,11.029242,11.053326,11.077209,11.100909,11.124446,11.147837,11.171100,11.194251,11.217305,11.240279,11.263188,11.286046,11.308868,11.331669,11.354462,11.377263,11.400085,11.422943,11.445852,11.468826,11.491881,11.515031,11.538294,11.561686,11.585222,11.608923,11.632805,11.656889,11.681195,11.705745,11.730563,11.755673,11.781101,11.806876,11.833030,11.859596,11.886610,11.914113,11.942148,11.970765,12.000017,12.029966,12.060679,12.092234,12.124717,12.158231,12.192890,12.228829,12.266209,12.305218,12.346083,12.389081,12.434554,12.482935,12.534778,12.590813,12.652034,12.719842,12.796306,12.884694,12.990640,13.125265,13.316333,13.685272
 drift_rw,30,2026-10-23,11.038036,11.090922,11.118311,11.137609,11.152795,11.165466,11.176426,11.186146,11.194922,11.202954,11.210386,11.217321,11.223839,11.230003,11.235861,11.241453,11.246811,11.251963,11.256931,11.261735,11.266391,11.270914,11.275317,11.279610,11.283803,11.287905,11.291924,11.295866,11.299739,11.303547,11.307296,11.310991,11.314636,11.318235,11.321793,11.325312,11.328796,11.332248,11.335672,11.339069,11.342443,11.345796,11.349131,11.352449,11.355754,11.359047,11.362331,11.365608,11.368879,11.372147,11.375415,11.378683,11.381955,11.385231,11.388515,11.391808,11.395113,11.398432,11.401766,11.405119,11.408493,11.411890,11.415314,11.418766,11.422250,11.425770,11.429327,11.432926,11.436571,11.440266,11.444015,11.447823,11.451696,11.455638,11.459657,11.463759,11.467952,11.472245,11.476648,11.481171,11.485827,11.490631,11.495600,11.500751,11.506110,11.511701,11.517559,11.523723,11.530241,11.537176,11.544608,11.552640,11.561416,11.571136,11.582097,11.594767,11.609953,11.629251,11.656640,11.709526
 drift_rw,91,2026-12-23,10.851487,10.943595,10.991297,11.024907,11.051357,11.073424,11.092514,11.109442,11.124726,11.138716,11.151659,11.163738,11.175090,11.185825,11.196027,11.205766,11.215098,11.224071,11.232724,11.241091,11.249200,11.257078,11.264746,11.272223,11.279526,11.286670,11.293670,11.300536,11.307280,11.313912,11.320442,11.326877,11.333225,11.339494,11.345690,11.351819,11.357887,11.363900,11.369863,11.375779,11.381656,11.387495,11.393303,11.399083,11.404839,11.410574,11.416294,11.422000,11.427698,11.433390,11.439081,11.444773,11.450471,11.456178,11.461897,11.467633,11.473388,11.479168,11.484976,11.490816,11.496692,11.502609,11.508571,11.514584,11.520652,11.526781,11.532977,11.539246,11.545594,11.552029,11.558559,11.565191,11.571936,11.578802,11.585801,11.592945,11.600248,11.607725,11.615393,11.623271,11.631381,11.639748,11.648400,11.657373,11.666705,11.676444,11.686646,11.697381,11.708734,11.720812,11.733755,11.747745,11.763029,11.779958,11.799048,11.821115,11.847565,11.881175,11.928876,12.020985
 drift_rw,182,2027-03-24,10.702446,10.832707,10.900167,10.947699,10.985105,11.016312,11.043309,11.067250,11.088865,11.108649,11.126953,11.144035,11.160091,11.175272,11.189700,11.203473,11.216670,11.229359,11.241596,11.253429,11.264898,11.276039,11.286883,11.297457,11.307785,11.317888,11.327787,11.337497,11.347035,11.356415,11.365649,11.374749,11.383727,11.392593,11.401355,11.410023,11.418605,11.427108,11.435540,11.443908,11.452218,11.460477,11.468690,11.476864,11.485004,11.493115,11.501203,11.509274,11.517332,11.525382,11.533430,11.541480,11.549538,11.557608,11.565696,11.573808,11.581948,11.590121,11.598335,11.606594,11.614904,11.623272,11.631704,11.640207,11.648789,11.657457,11.666219,11.675084,11.684062,11.693163,11.702397,11.711776,11.721314,11.731025,11.740923,11.751027,11.761355,11.771929,11.782773,11.793914,11.805383,11.817215,11.829452,11.842141,11.855339,11.869112,11.883540,11.898721,11.914776,11.931858,11.950162,11.969946,11.991562,12.015502,12.042499,12.073707,12.111113,12.158645,12.226105,12.356366
 drift_rw,365,2027-09-23,10.545666,10.730136,10.825670,10.892983,10.945955,10.990150,11.028382,11.062285,11.092896,11.120914,11.146835,11.171025,11.193762,11.215261,11.235694,11.255198,11.273888,11.291858,11.309187,11.325944,11.342186,11.357963,11.373319,11.388294,11.402920,11.417228,11.431246,11.444997,11.458504,11.471787,11.484864,11.497752,11.510466,11.523021,11.535430,11.547705,11.559858,11.571900,11.583841,11.595691,11.607460,11.619155,11.630787,11.642362,11.653890,11.665377,11.676831,11.688260,11.699671,11.711071,11.722468,11.733868,11.745279,11.756708,11.768163,11.779650,11.791177,11.802753,11.814384,11.826080,11.837848,11.849698,11.861639,11.873681,11.885834,11.898110,11.910518,11.923073,11.935787,11.948675,11.961752,11.975035,11.988542,12.002293,12.016311,12.030619,12.045245,12.060220,12.075576,12.091354,12.107596,12.124352,12.141682,12.159651,12.178341,12.197846,12.218278,12.239777,12.262514,12.286704,12.312626,12.340643,12.371254,12.405158,12.443390,12.487584,12.540557,12.607869,12.703403,12.887873
 drift_rw,730,2028-09-22,10.434283,10.695163,10.830269,10.925463,11.000378,11.062878,11.116946,11.164893,11.208183,11.247806,11.284464,11.318675,11.350829,11.381234,11.410129,11.437713,11.464144,11.489557,11.514065,11.537762,11.560732,11.583044,11.604762,11.625939,11.646623,11.666858,11.686682,11.706130,11.725232,11.744016,11.762510,11.780736,11.798717,11.816472,11.834020,11.851380,11.868567,11.885597,11.902484,11.919243,11.935886,11.952426,11.968876,11.985246,12.001548,12.017793,12.033992,12.050155,12.066293,12.082415,12.098532,12.114655,12.130792,12.146956,12.163154,12.179400,12.195702,12.212072,12.228521,12.245061,12.261704,12.278463,12.295350,12.312380,12.329567,12.346927,12.364476,12.382231,12.400211,12.418437,12.436931,12.455716,12.474818,12.494265,12.514089,12.534324,12.555009,12.576186,12.597903,12.620216,12.643185,12.666882,12.691390,12.716803,12.743235,12.770818,12.799714,12.830118,12.862273,12.896483,12.933141,12.972764,13.016054,13.064001,13.118070,13.180570,13.255484,13.350679,13.485784,13.746664
 drift_rw,1095,2029-09-22,10.435767,10.755278,10.920748,11.037337,11.129088,11.205635,11.271855,11.330577,11.383597,11.432125,11.477022,11.518921,11.558302,11.595539,11.630930,11.664712,11.697084,11.728209,11.758224,11.787247,11.815379,11.842706,11.869304,11.895241,11.920574,11.945357,11.969636,11.993454,12.016849,12.039856,12.062506,12.084828,12.106850,12.128595,12.150088,12.171349,12.192399,12.213256,12.233939,12.254464,12.274847,12.295105,12.315251,12.335300,12.355266,12.375162,12.395002,12.414797,12.434562,12.454308,12.474048,12.493793,12.513558,12.533354,12.553193,12.573089,12.593055,12.613104,12.633251,12.653508,12.673892,12.694417,12.715099,12.735957,12.757006,12.778268,12.799760,12.821506,12.843527,12.865850,12.888500,12.911506,12.934901,12.958719,12.982998,13.007781,13.033114,13.059051,13.085649,13.112976,13.141108,13.170131,13.200147,13.231272,13.263643,13.297426,13.332816,13.370053,13.409435,13.451334,13.496231,13.544759,13.597778,13.656501,13.722721,13.799267,13.891019,14.007607,14.173077,14.492588
 drift_rw,1460,2030-09-22,10.495675,10.864614,11.055683,11.190308,11.296253,11.384641,11.461106,11.528913,11.590134,11.646169,11.698012,11.746393,11.791867,11.834865,11.875730,11.914738,11.952118,11.988058,12.022717,12.056230,12.088714,12.120268,12.150981,12.180930,12.210182,12.238799,12.266835,12.294337,12.321351,12.347917,12.374071,12.399846,12.425275,12.450384,12.475202,12.499752,12.524058,12.548142,12.572025,12.595725,12.619262,12.642653,12.665916,12.689067,12.712121,12.735095,12.758004,12.780862,12.803684,12.826485,12.849278,12.872079,12.894901,12.917759,12.940668,12.963642,12.986697,13.009847,13.033110,13.056502,13.080038,13.103739,13.127621,13.151705,13.176011,13.200561,13.225379,13.250489,13.275917,13.301692,13.327846,13.354412,13.381426,13.408929,13.436964,13.465581,13.494833,13.524782,13.555495,13.587050,13.619533,13.653047,13.687706,13.723645,13.761025,13.800034,13.840899,13.883897,13.929370,13.977751,14.029594,14.085629,14.146850,14.214658,14.291122,14.379510,14.485456,14.620081,14.811149,15.180088
 cycle,30,2026-10-23,11.017695,11.070581,11.097969,11.117267,11.132454,11.145124,11.156085,11.165805,11.174581,11.182613,11.190045,11.196980,11.203498,11.209662,11.215520,11.221111,11.226469,11.231621,11.236590,11.241393,11.246050,11.250573,11.254976,11.259269,11.263462,11.267564,11.271583,11.275525,11.279397,11.283206,11.286955,11.290649,11.294294,11.297894,11.301451,11.304970,11.308455,11.311907,11.315330,11.318728,11.322102,11.325455,11.328789,11.332108,11.335413,11.338706,11.341990,11.345266,11.348538,11.351806,11.355073,11.358342,11.361613,11.364890,11.368174,11.371467,11.374772,11.378090,11.381425,11.384778,11.388152,11.391549,11.394973,11.398425,11.401909,11.405428,11.408986,11.412585,11.416230,11.419925,11.423674,11.427482,11.431354,11.435297,11.439316,11.443418,11.447611,11.451904,11.456306,11.460830,11.465486,11.470290,11.475258,11.480410,11.485768,11.491360,11.497218,11.503381,11.509900,11.516835,11.524266,11.532299,11.541075,11.550794,11.561755,11.574425,11.589612,11.608910,11.636299,11.689185
 cycle,91,2026-12-23,10.823841,10.915949,10.963651,10.997261,11.023711,11.045778,11.064868,11.081796,11.097081,11.111070,11.124013,11.136092,11.147445,11.158179,11.168382,11.178120,11.187452,11.196425,11.205078,11.213445,11.221555,11.229432,11.237100,11.244577,11.251880,11.259025,11.266024,11.272890,11.279634,11.286267,11.292796,11.299231,11.305580,11.311848,11.318044,11.324173,11.330242,11.336254,11.342217,11.348134,11.354010,11.359850,11.365657,11.371437,11.377193,11.382929,11.388648,11.394355,11.400052,11.405745,11.411435,11.417127,11.422825,11.428532,11.434251,11.439987,11.445743,11.451522,11.457330,11.463170,11.469046,11.474963,11.480925,11.486938,11.493006,11.499135,11.505331,11.511600,11.517949,11.524384,11.530913,11.537545,11.544290,11.551156,11.558155,11.565300,11.572603,11.580080,11.587747,11.595625,11.603735,11.612102,11.620755,11.629727,11.639059,11.648798,11.659000,11.669735,11.681088,11.693167,11.706110,11.720099,11.735383,11.752312,11.771402,11.793469,11.819919,11.853529,11.901230,11.993339
 cycle,182,2027-03-24,10.898356,11.028617,11.096077,11.143609,11.181015,11.212222,11.239219,11.263160,11.284775,11.304559,11.322863,11.339945,11.356000,11.371182,11.385610,11.399383,11.412580,11.425269,11.437506,11.449339,11.460808,11.471949,11.482793,11.493366,11.503695,11.513798,11.523697,11.533407,11.542945,11.552324,11.561558,11.570659,11.579637,11.588502,11.597265,11.605933,11.614514,11.623018,11.631450,11.639818,11.648128,11.656386,11.664600,11.672774,11.680914,11.689025,11.697113,11.705184,11.713242,11.721292,11.729339,11.737390,11.745447,11.753518,11.761606,11.769718,11.777857,11.786031,11.794245,11.802503,11.810814,11.819181,11.827614,11.836117,11.844699,11.853366,11.862129,11.870994,11.879972,11.889073,11.898307,11.907686,11.917224,11.926934,11.936833,11.946937,11.957265,11.967839,11.978682,11.989823,12.001292,12.013125,12.025362,12.038051,12.051249,12.065021,12.079450,12.094631,12.110686,12.127768,12.146072,12.165856,12.187472,12.211412,12.238409,12.269616,12.307022,12.354554,12.422015,12.552276
 cycle,365,2027-09-23,10.691812,10.876281,10.971816,11.039128,11.092101,11.136295,11.174527,11.208431,11.239041,11.267059,11.292980,11.317171,11.339908,11.361407,11.381839,11.401343,11.420033,11.438003,11.455333,11.472089,11.488331,11.504108,11.519465,11.534439,11.549066,11.563374,11.577392,11.591143,11.604650,11.617933,11.631010,11.643898,11.656612,11.669167,11.681575,11.693850,11.706004,11.718045,11.729987,11.741837,11.753605,11.765301,11.776932,11.788508,11.800035,11.811522,11.822976,11.834405,11.845817,11.857217,11.868614,11.880014,11.891425,11.902854,11.914308,11.925795,11.937323,11.948898,11.960529,11.972225,11.983994,11.995844,12.007785,12.019827,12.031980,12.044255,12.056664,12.069219,12.081933,12.094821,12.107898,12.121180,12.134687,12.148439,12.162456,12.176765,12.191391,12.206365,12.221722,12.237499,12.253741,12.270498,12.287827,12.305797,12.324487,12.343991,12.364424,12.385923,12.408660,12.432850,12.458771,12.486789,12.517400,12.551303,12.589535,12.633729,12.686702,12.754015,12.849549,13.034019
 cycle,730,2028-09-22,11.127521,11.388401,11.523506,11.618701,11.693615,11.756115,11.810184,11.858131,11.901421,11.941044,11.977702,12.011912,12.044067,12.074471,12.103367,12.130950,12.157382,12.182795,12.207303,12.231000,12.253970,12.276282,12.298000,12.319176,12.339861,12.360096,12.379920,12.399367,12.418469,12.437254,12.455748,12.473974,12.491954,12.509710,12.527258,12.544618,12.561805,12.578835,12.595722,12.612481,12.629124,12.645664,12.662113,12.678483,12.694785,12.711031,12.727230,12.743393,12.759530,12.775653,12.791770,12.807893,12.824030,12.840193,12.856392,12.872637,12.888940,12.905310,12.921759,12.938299,12.954942,12.971701,12.988588,13.005618,13.022805,13.040165,13.057713,13.075469,13.093449,13.111675,13.130169,13.148954,13.168055,13.187503,13.207327,13.227562,13.248246,13.269423,13.291141,13.313453,13.336423,13.360120,13.384628,13.410041,13.436472,13.464056,13.492952,13.523356,13.555510,13.589721,13.626379,13.666002,13.709292,13.757239,13.811307,13.873807,13.948722,14.043917,14.179022,14.439902
 cycle,1095,2029-09-22,11.767059,12.086569,12.252039,12.368628,12.460380,12.536926,12.603146,12.661869,12.714888,12.763416,12.808313,12.850212,12.889594,12.926831,12.962221,12.996003,13.028375,13.059500,13.089515,13.118539,13.146670,13.173997,13.200596,13.226532,13.251866,13.276648,13.300928,13.324746,13.348141,13.371147,13.393797,13.416119,13.438141,13.459887,13.481379,13.502640,13.523690,13.544547,13.565230,13.585755,13.606139,13.626396,13.646542,13.666591,13.686557,13.706454,13.726293,13.746089,13.765853,13.785599,13.805339,13.825085,13.844849,13.864645,13.884484,13.904381,13.924347,13.944396,13.964542,13.984799,14.005183,14.025708,14.046391,14.067248,14.088298,14.109559,14.131051,14.152797,14.174819,14.197141,14.219791,14.242797,14.266192,14.290010,14.314290,14.339072,14.364406,14.390342,14.416941,14.444268,14.472399,14.501423,14.531438,14.562563,14.594935,14.628717,14.664107,14.701345,14.740726,14.782625,14.827522,14.876050,14.929069,14.987792,15.054012,15.130558,15.222310,15.338899,15.504369,15.823880
 cycle,1460,2030-09-22,11.007316,11.376255,11.567323,11.701948,11.807894,11.896282,11.972747,12.040554,12.101775,12.157810,12.209653,12.258034,12.303507,12.346505,12.387370,12.426379,12.463759,12.499699,12.534357,12.567871,12.600354,12.631909,12.662622,12.692571,12.721823,12.750440,12.778475,12.805978,12.832992,12.859558,12.885712,12.911487,12.936916,12.962025,12.986843,13.011393,13.035699,13.059783,13.083665,13.107366,13.130903,13.154294,13.177557,13.200707,13.223762,13.246736,13.269645,13.292503,13.315325,13.338126,13.360919,13.383720,13.406542,13.429400,13.452309,13.475283,13.498337,13.521488,13.544751,13.568142,13.591679,13.615379,13.639262,13.663346,13.687652,13.712202,13.737020,13.762129,13.787558,13.813333,13.839487,13.866053,13.893067,13.920570,13.948605,13.977222,14.006474,14.036423,14.067136,14.098691,14.131174,14.164687,14.199346,14.235286,14.272666,14.311675,14.352539,14.395537,14.441011,14.489392,14.541235,14.597270,14.658491,14.726298,14.802763,14.891151,14.997096,15.131722,15.322790,15.691729
 powerlaw,30,2026-10-23,11.032747,11.085633,11.113022,11.132320,11.147507,11.160177,11.171138,11.180857,11.189633,11.197666,11.205097,11.212032,11.218551,11.224714,11.230572,11.236164,11.241522,11.246674,11.251642,11.256446,11.261102,11.265626,11.270028,11.274321,11.278514,11.282617,11.286635,11.290578,11.294450,11.298258,11.302007,11.305702,11.309347,11.312946,11.316504,11.320023,11.323507,11.326959,11.330383,11.333780,11.337154,11.340507,11.343842,11.347160,11.350465,11.353758,11.357042,11.360319,11.363590,11.366859,11.370126,11.373394,11.376666,11.379942,11.383226,11.386520,11.389824,11.393143,11.396477,11.399831,11.403204,11.406602,11.410025,11.413478,11.416962,11.420481,11.424038,11.427638,11.431283,11.434978,11.438727,11.442535,11.446407,11.450349,11.454368,11.458470,11.462663,11.466956,11.471359,11.475882,11.480539,11.485343,11.490311,11.495463,11.500821,11.506413,11.512270,11.518434,11.524952,11.531888,11.539319,11.547351,11.556127,11.565847,11.576808,11.589478,11.604665,11.623963,11.651351,11.704237
 powerlaw,91,2026-12-23,10.835084,10.927193,10.974894,11.008505,11.034955,11.057021,11.076111,11.093040,11.108324,11.122314,11.135257,11.147335,11.158688,11.169423,11.179625,11.189364,11.198696,11.207669,11.216322,11.224688,11.232798,11.240676,11.248344,11.255821,11.263124,11.270268,11.277267,11.284134,11.290878,11.297510,11.304040,11.310475,11.316823,11.323092,11.329288,11.335417,11.341485,11.347498,11.353460,11.359377,11.365253,11.371093,11.376901,11.382681,11.388436,11.394172,11.399891,11.405598,11.411296,11.416988,11.422679,11.428371,11.434069,11.439775,11.445495,11.451230,11.456986,11.462766,11.468574,11.474413,11.480290,11.486207,11.492169,11.498182,11.504250,11.510379,11.516575,11.522844,11.529192,11.535627,11.542157,11.548789,11.555533,11.562400,11.569399,11.576543,11.583846,11.591323,11.598991,11.606869,11.614979,11.623345,11.631998,11.640971,11.650303,11.660042,11.670244,11.680979,11.692332,11.704410,11.717353,11.731343,11.746627,11.763556,11.782645,11.804712,11.831162,11.864772,11.912474,12.004582
 powerlaw,182,2027-03-24,10.668584,10.798845,10.866305,10.913837,10.951243,10.982450,11.009448,11.033388,11.055003,11.074788,11.093092,11.110174,11.126229,11.141410,11.155838,11.169611,11.182809,11.195498,11.207735,11.219567,11.231036,11.242177,11.253021,11.263595,11.273923,11.284027,11.293925,11.303636,11.313173,11.322553,11.331787,11.340888,11.349866,11.358731,11.367493,11.376161,11.384743,11.393246,11.401678,11.410046,11.418356,11.426615,11.434828,11.443002,11.451142,11.459254,11.467342,11.475412,11.483470,11.491520,11.499568,11.507618,11.515676,11.523746,11.531835,11.539946,11.548086,11.556260,11.564473,11.572732,11.581042,11.589410,11.597842,11.606345,11.614927,11.623595,11.632357,11.641223,11.650201,11.659301,11.668535,11.677915,11.687453,11.697163,11.707061,11.717165,11.727493,11.738067,11.748911,11.760052,11.771521,11.783353,11.795590,11.808280,11.821477,11.835250,11.849678,11.864859,11.880915,11.897996,11.916300,11.936085,11.957700,11.981641,12.008638,12.039845,12.077251,12.124783,12.192243,12.322504
 powerlaw,365,2027-09-23,10.473609,10.658078,10.753612,10.820925,10.873898,10.918092,10.956324,10.990228,11.020838,11.048856,11.074777,11.098968,11.121704,11.143203,11.163636,11.183140,11.201830,11.219800,11.237129,11.253886,11.270128,11.285905,11.301262,11.316236,11.330862,11.345171,11.359188,11.372940,11.386447,11.399730,11.412807,11.425694,11.438409,11.450963,11.463372,11.475647,11.487800,11.499842,11.511783,11.523634,11.535402,11.547098,11.558729,11.570304,11.581832,11.593319,11.604773,11.616202,11.627613,11.639014,11.650410,11.661811,11.673222,11.684651,11.696105,11.707592,11.719119,11.730695,11.742326,11.754022,11.765790,11.777641,11.789582,11.801624,11.813777,11.826052,11.838461,11.851015,11.863730,11.876617,11.889694,11.902977,11.916484,11.930236,11.944253,11.958562,11.973188,11.988162,12.003519,12.019296,12.035538,12.052294,12.069624,12.087594,12.106284,12.125788,12.146220,12.167719,12.190456,12.214647,12.240568,12.268586,12.299196,12.333100,12.371332,12.415526,12.468499,12.535812,12.631346,12.815815
 powerlaw,730,2028-09-22,10.274476,10.535355,10.670461,10.765655,10.840570,10.903070,10.957138,11.005085,11.048375,11.087998,11.124657,11.158867,11.191022,11.221426,11.250322,11.277905,11.304337,11.329750,11.354257,11.377955,11.400924,11.423237,11.444954,11.466131,11.486816,11.507051,11.526875,11.546322,11.565424,11.584209,11.602702,11.620928,11.638909,11.656664,11.674213,11.691572,11.708759,11.725789,11.742677,11.759435,11.776078,11.792619,11.809068,11.825438,11.841740,11.857985,11.874184,11.890347,11.906485,11.922607,11.938725,11.954847,11.970985,11.987148,12.003347,12.019592,12.035894,12.052264,12.068713,12.085254,12.101897,12.118655,12.135543,12.152573,12.169760,12.187119,12.204668,12.222423,12.240404,12.258630,12.277123,12.295908,12.315010,12.334457,12.354281,12.374516,12.395201,12.416378,12.438095,12.460408,12.483377,12.507075,12.531582,12.556996,12.583427,12.611010,12.639906,12.670310,12.702465,12.736675,12.773334,12.812957,12.856247,12.904194,12.958262,13.020762,13.095677,13.190871,13.325977,13.586856
 powerlaw,1095,2029-09-22,10.174070,10.493580,10.659050,10.775639,10.867391,10.943937,11.010157,11.068880,11.121899,11.170427,11.215324,11.257223,11.296605,11.333842,11.369232,11.403014,11.435386,11.466511,11.496526,11.525550,11.553681,11.581008,11.607607,11.633543,11.658877,11.683659,11.707939,11.731757,11.755152,11.778158,11.800808,11.823130,11.845152,11.866898,11.888390,11.909651,11.930701,11.951558,11.972241,11.992766,12.013150,12.033407,12.053553,12.073602,12.093568,12.113465,12.133304,12.153100,12.172864,12.192610,12.212350,12.232096,12.251860,12.271656,12.291495,12.311392,12.331358,12.351407,12.371553,12.391810,12.412194,12.432719,12.453402,12.474259,12.495309,12.516570,12.538062,12.559808,12.581830,12.604152,12.626802,12.649808,12.673203,12.697021,12.721301,12.746083,12.771417,12.797353,12.823952,12.851279,12.879410,12.908434,12.938449,12.969574,13.001946,13.035728,13.071118,13.108356,13.147737,13.189636,13.234533,13.283061,13.336080,13.394803,13.461023,13.537569,13.629321,13.745910,13.911380,14.230891
 powerlaw,1460,2030-09-22,10.119280,10.488219,10.679288,10.813913,10.919858,11.008247,11.084711,11.152518,11.213739,11.269775,11.321617,11.369998,11.415472,11.458470,11.499335,11.538343,11.575723,11.611663,11.646322,11.679835,11.712319,11.743873,11.774586,11.804535,11.833788,11.862404,11.890440,11.917942,11.944956,11.971522,11.997676,12.023452,12.048880,12.073990,12.098807,12.123357,12.147664,12.171747,12.195630,12.219330,12.242867,12.266258,12.289521,12.312672,12.335727,12.358701,12.381609,12.404467,12.427290,12.450090,12.472884,12.495684,12.518506,12.541364,12.564273,12.587247,12.610302,12.633453,12.656715,12.680107,12.703644,12.727344,12.751226,12.775310,12.799616,12.824167,12.848984,12.874094,12.899522,12.925298,12.951452,12.978017,13.005031,13.032534,13.060569,13.089186,13.118438,13.148387,13.179100,13.210655,13.243139,13.276652,13.311311,13.347251,13.384630,13.423639,13.464504,13.507502,13.552976,13.601356,13.653199,13.709234,13.770456,13.838263,13.914727,14.003115,14.109061,14.243686,14.434754,14.803694
 powerlaw_ou,30,2026-10-23,11.087983,11.138510,11.164677,11.183114,11.197623,11.209728,11.220199,11.229486,11.237870,11.245544,11.252644,11.259270,11.265497,11.271386,11.276982,11.282325,11.287444,11.292366,11.297112,11.301702,11.306150,11.310472,11.314678,11.318780,11.322786,11.326705,11.330544,11.334311,11.338010,11.341648,11.345230,11.348760,11.352243,11.355681,11.359080,11.362442,11.365771,11.369069,11.372340,11.375586,11.378809,11.382013,11.385198,11.388369,11.391526,11.394673,11.397810,11.400940,11.404066,11.407188,11.410310,11.413433,11.416558,11.419688,11.422826,11.425972,11.429129,11.432300,11.435486,11.438689,11.441913,11.445158,11.448429,11.451727,11.455056,11.458418,11.461817,11.465256,11.468738,11.472268,11.475850,11.479488,11.483188,11.486954,11.490794,11.494713,11.498719,11.502820,11.507027,11.511348,11.515797,11.520386,11.525133,11.530055,11.535174,11.540516,11.546113,11.552001,11.558229,11.564855,11.571954,11.579629,11.588013,11.597299,11.607771,11.619876,11.634385,11.652822,11.678989,11.729515
 powerlaw_ou,91,2026-12-23,11.021042,11.101360,11.142955,11.172263,11.195327,11.214569,11.231216,11.245977,11.259305,11.271504,11.282790,11.293322,11.303222,11.312583,11.321479,11.329971,11.338108,11.345932,11.353478,11.360773,11.367845,11.374715,11.381401,11.387921,11.394289,11.400519,11.406622,11.412609,11.418490,11.424273,11.429967,11.435578,11.441114,11.446581,11.451983,11.457328,11.462619,11.467862,11.473061,11.478221,11.483345,11.488437,11.493501,11.498541,11.503560,11.508562,11.513549,11.518525,11.523494,11.528457,11.533419,11.538383,11.543351,11.548327,11.553315,11.558316,11.563335,11.568375,11.573439,11.578532,11.583656,11.588815,11.594014,11.599257,11.604549,11.609893,11.615296,11.620762,11.626298,11.631909,11.637603,11.643386,11.649267,11.655255,11.661358,11.667588,11.673956,11.680476,11.687162,11.694031,11.701103,11.708399,11.715944,11.723768,11.731906,11.740398,11.749294,11.758655,11.768554,11.779087,11.790373,11.802572,11.815899,11.830661,11.847307,11.866549,11.889613,11.918921,11.960516,12.040834
 powerlaw_ou,182,2027-03-24,11.053127,11.153396,11.205323,11.241911,11.270704,11.294726,11.315507,11.333935,11.350574,11.365803,11.379892,11.393041,11.405400,11.417086,11.428192,11.438793,11.448952,11.458720,11.468139,11.477247,11.486075,11.494651,11.502998,11.511138,11.519088,11.526865,11.534484,11.541959,11.549301,11.556521,11.563628,11.570634,11.577544,11.584369,11.591113,11.597786,11.604391,11.610937,11.617427,11.623869,11.630265,11.636622,11.642945,11.649237,11.655502,11.661746,11.667972,11.674184,11.680387,11.686583,11.692778,11.698975,11.705177,11.711390,11.717616,11.723859,11.730125,11.736417,11.742739,11.749096,11.755493,11.761934,11.768425,11.774970,11.781576,11.788248,11.794993,11.801817,11.808728,11.815733,11.822841,11.830061,11.837403,11.844877,11.852497,11.860274,11.868224,11.876363,11.884710,11.893286,11.902114,11.911222,11.920642,11.930409,11.940568,11.951170,11.962276,11.973962,11.986320,11.999469,12.013559,12.028788,12.045426,12.063854,12.084635,12.108657,12.137451,12.174038,12.225966,12.326235
 powerlaw_ou,365,2027-09-23,11.218358,11.333244,11.392742,11.434664,11.467655,11.495179,11.518990,11.540104,11.559169,11.576618,11.592761,11.607827,11.621987,11.635377,11.648102,11.660249,11.671889,11.683080,11.693873,11.704309,11.714424,11.724250,11.733814,11.743140,11.752249,11.761160,11.769891,11.778455,11.786867,11.795139,11.803284,11.811310,11.819228,11.827047,11.834775,11.842420,11.849989,11.857489,11.864926,11.872306,11.879635,11.886919,11.894163,11.901372,11.908551,11.915705,11.922839,11.929957,11.937064,11.944164,11.951261,11.958361,11.965468,11.972586,11.979720,11.986874,11.994053,12.001262,12.008506,12.015790,12.023119,12.030499,12.037936,12.045436,12.053005,12.060650,12.068378,12.076197,12.084115,12.092141,12.100286,12.108558,12.116970,12.125534,12.134265,12.143176,12.152285,12.161611,12.171175,12.181001,12.191116,12.201552,12.212345,12.223536,12.235176,12.247323,12.260048,12.273438,12.287598,12.302664,12.318807,12.336257,12.355321,12.376435,12.400246,12.427770,12.460761,12.502683,12.562181,12.677067
 powerlaw_ou,730,2028-09-22,11.564081,11.684393,11.746700,11.790602,11.825151,11.853974,11.878909,11.901021,11.920985,11.939259,11.956165,11.971942,11.986771,12.000792,12.014119,12.026839,12.039029,12.050749,12.062051,12.072980,12.083573,12.093863,12.103879,12.113645,12.123184,12.132516,12.141658,12.150627,12.159436,12.168099,12.176628,12.185034,12.193326,12.201514,12.209607,12.217613,12.225539,12.233393,12.241181,12.248910,12.256585,12.264213,12.271799,12.279349,12.286867,12.294359,12.301829,12.309284,12.316726,12.324161,12.331594,12.339029,12.346472,12.353926,12.361396,12.368888,12.376406,12.383956,12.391542,12.399170,12.406845,12.414574,12.422362,12.430216,12.438142,12.446148,12.454241,12.462429,12.470721,12.479127,12.487656,12.496319,12.505128,12.514097,12.523239,12.532571,12.542110,12.551877,12.561892,12.572182,12.582775,12.593704,12.605006,12.616726,12.628916,12.641637,12.654963,12.668984,12.683814,12.699591,12.716497,12.734770,12.754734,12.776846,12.801781,12.830605,12.865154,12.909055,12.971363,13.091674
 powerlaw_ou,1095,2029-09-22,11.861940,11.982763,12.045336,12.089424,12.124120,12.153066,12.178107,12.200313,12.220362,12.238713,12.255691,12.271535,12.286427,12.300508,12.313891,12.326666,12.338908,12.350677,12.362028,12.373003,12.383641,12.393975,12.404033,12.413841,12.423421,12.432792,12.441973,12.450980,12.459827,12.468527,12.477092,12.485533,12.493861,12.502084,12.510211,12.518251,12.526211,12.534098,12.541919,12.549681,12.557389,12.565049,12.572668,12.580249,12.587799,12.595323,12.602826,12.610311,12.617785,12.625252,12.632717,12.640184,12.647658,12.655143,12.662646,12.670169,12.677720,12.685301,12.692919,12.700580,12.708288,12.716049,12.723871,12.731758,12.739718,12.747758,12.755885,12.764108,12.772436,12.780877,12.789442,12.798142,12.806989,12.815995,12.825177,12.834548,12.844128,12.853936,12.863994,12.874328,12.884966,12.895941,12.907291,12.919061,12.931303,12.944078,12.957460,12.971542,12.986434,13.002278,13.019256,13.037607,13.057656,13.079862,13.104903,13.133849,13.168545,13.212633,13.275206,13.396029
 powerlaw_ou,1460,2030-09-22,12.129741,12.250614,12.313212,12.357318,12.392028,12.420986,12.446038,12.468253,12.488310,12.506668,12.523653,12.539504,12.554402,12.568489,12.581877,12.594657,12.606904,12.618678,12.630033,12.641013,12.651655,12.661993,12.672056,12.681868,12.691451,12.700827,12.710012,12.719022,12.727873,12.736576,12.745145,12.753589,12.761920,12.770147,12.778277,12.786321,12.794284,12.802174,12.809999,12.817763,12.825475,12.833138,12.840759,12.848344,12.855897,12.863424,12.870930,12.878418,12.885895,12.893365,12.900833,12.908303,12.915780,12.923269,12.930774,12.938301,12.945854,12.953439,12.961060,12.968724,12.976435,12.984200,12.992024,12.999914,13.007878,13.015921,13.024052,13.032278,13.040609,13.049054,13.057622,13.066326,13.075176,13.084187,13.093372,13.102747,13.112331,13.122143,13.132205,13.142543,13.153185,13.164165,13.175520,13.187294,13.199541,13.212321,13.225709,13.239796,13.254694,13.270545,13.287530,13.305888,13.325946,13.348161,13.373212,13.402170,13.436880,13.480986,13.543584,13.664457
 powerlaw_ou_param,30,2026-10-23,11.075724,11.128181,11.155348,11.174490,11.189554,11.202121,11.212993,11.222634,11.231339,11.239306,11.246678,11.253557,11.260022,11.266136,11.271946,11.277493,11.282807,11.287917,11.292845,11.297610,11.302229,11.306716,11.311083,11.315341,11.319500,11.323569,11.327555,11.331466,11.335307,11.339084,11.342803,11.346467,11.350083,11.353653,11.357182,11.360672,11.364128,11.367553,11.370948,11.374318,11.377665,11.380991,11.384298,11.387590,11.390868,11.394135,11.397392,11.400642,11.403887,11.407129,11.410370,11.413612,11.416856,11.420107,11.423364,11.426630,11.429908,11.433200,11.436508,11.439834,11.443180,11.446550,11.449946,11.453370,11.456826,11.460317,11.463845,11.467415,11.471031,11.474696,11.478415,11.482192,11.486033,11.489943,11.493929,11.497998,11.502157,11.506416,11.510783,11.515269,11.519888,11.524653,11.529581,11.534691,11.540006,11.545552,11.551363,11.557476,11.563942,11.570821,11.578192,11.586159,11.594864,11.604505,11.615377,11.627945,11.643009,11.662150,11.689317,11.741774
 powerlaw_ou_param,91,2026-12-23,10.963897,11.053216,11.099473,11.132065,11.157714,11.179113,11.197625,11.214041,11.228862,11.242428,11.254979,11.266692,11.277701,11.288111,11.298004,11.307448,11.316497,11.325198,11.333589,11.341703,11.349567,11.357206,11.364642,11.371892,11.378974,11.385902,11.392689,11.399348,11.405888,11.412319,11.418651,11.424891,11.431047,11.437126,11.443134,11.449078,11.454962,11.460793,11.466575,11.472313,11.478011,11.483674,11.489306,11.494911,11.500492,11.506054,11.511600,11.517134,11.522659,11.528179,11.533697,11.539217,11.544742,11.550276,11.555822,11.561384,11.566966,11.572571,11.578203,11.583866,11.589564,11.595301,11.601083,11.606914,11.612798,11.618742,11.624750,11.630829,11.636985,11.643226,11.649557,11.655989,11.662529,11.669187,11.675974,11.682902,11.689984,11.697235,11.704670,11.712310,11.720174,11.728287,11.736678,11.745379,11.754429,11.763873,11.773766,11.784176,11.795185,11.806897,11.819448,11.833014,11.847836,11.864252,11.882764,11.904162,11.929811,11.962404,12.008661,12.097980
 powerlaw_ou_param,182,2027-03-24,10.917993,11.039547,11.102499,11.146854,11.181760,11.210881,11.236074,11.258414,11.278585,11.297047,11.314127,11.330067,11.345050,11.359216,11.372680,11.385532,11.397848,11.409689,11.421108,11.432150,11.442852,11.453248,11.463367,11.473235,11.482872,11.492301,11.501538,11.510599,11.519499,11.528252,11.536869,11.545361,11.553739,11.562012,11.570189,11.578277,11.586285,11.594220,11.602089,11.609897,11.617652,11.625359,11.633023,11.640651,11.648246,11.655816,11.663364,11.670895,11.678414,11.685926,11.693436,11.700948,11.708467,11.715998,11.723546,11.731115,11.738711,11.746338,11.754003,11.761710,11.769464,11.777273,11.785141,11.793076,11.801084,11.809173,11.817350,11.825623,11.834000,11.842493,11.851110,11.859862,11.868763,11.877824,11.887061,11.896489,11.906127,11.915994,11.926113,11.936510,11.947212,11.958254,11.969673,11.981514,11.993829,12.006682,12.020145,12.034312,12.049294,12.065234,12.082315,12.100777,12.120947,12.143288,12.168481,12.197602,12.232508,12.276863,12.339814,12.461369
 powerlaw_ou_param,365,2027-09-23,10.943348,11.101554,11.183486,11.241215,11.286645,11.324547,11.357336,11.386412,11.412665,11.436693,11.458924,11.479670,11.499170,11.517608,11.535131,11.551858,11.567887,11.583299,11.598161,11.612532,11.626461,11.639992,11.653162,11.666004,11.678548,11.690819,11.702841,11.714635,11.726219,11.737610,11.748825,11.759878,11.770782,11.781549,11.792191,11.802719,11.813142,11.823469,11.833710,11.843873,11.853966,11.863996,11.873972,11.883899,11.893785,11.903637,11.913460,11.923262,11.933048,11.942825,11.952600,11.962377,11.972163,11.981965,11.991788,12.001640,12.011526,12.021453,12.031429,12.041459,12.051552,12.061715,12.071956,12.082283,12.092706,12.103234,12.113876,12.124643,12.135547,12.146600,12.157815,12.169206,12.180790,12.192584,12.204606,12.216877,12.229421,12.242263,12.255433,12.268964,12.282893,12.297264,12.312126,12.327538,12.343567,12.360294,12.377817,12.396255,12.415755,12.436501,12.458732,12.482760,12.509013,12.538089,12.570878,12.608780,12.654210,12.711939,12.793871,12.952077
 powerlaw_ou_param,730,2028-09-22,11.120857,11.310984,11.409448,11.478825,11.533423,11.578972,11.618377,11.653320,11.684870,11.713747,11.740463,11.765396,11.788830,11.810988,11.832047,11.852150,11.871413,11.889934,11.907795,11.925065,11.941805,11.958066,11.973894,11.989328,12.004402,12.019150,12.033597,12.047770,12.061692,12.075382,12.088860,12.102143,12.115247,12.128187,12.140976,12.153628,12.166154,12.178565,12.190872,12.203086,12.215215,12.227270,12.239258,12.251188,12.263069,12.274908,12.286714,12.298494,12.310255,12.322004,12.333751,12.345501,12.357262,12.369041,12.380847,12.392686,12.404567,12.416498,12.428486,12.440540,12.452669,12.464883,12.477190,12.489602,12.502127,12.514779,12.527568,12.540508,12.553612,12.566895,12.580373,12.594064,12.607985,12.622158,12.636606,12.651353,12.666428,12.681861,12.697689,12.713950,12.730690,12.747961,12.765821,12.784342,12.803606,12.823708,12.844767,12.866926,12.890360,12.915292,12.942008,12.970885,13.002435,13.037378,13.076783,13.122332,13.176930,13.246307,13.344771,13.534898
 powerlaw_ou_param,1095,2029-09-22,11.337474,11.540910,11.646266,11.720499,11.778919,11.827657,11.869820,11.907209,11.940967,11.971865,12.000452,12.027129,12.052204,12.075913,12.098446,12.119956,12.140568,12.160385,12.179496,12.197976,12.215887,12.233287,12.250222,12.266736,12.282866,12.298646,12.314105,12.329270,12.344166,12.358814,12.373236,12.387448,12.401470,12.415315,12.429000,12.442537,12.455940,12.469220,12.482389,12.495457,12.508436,12.521334,12.534161,12.546927,12.559639,12.572307,12.584939,12.597543,12.610128,12.622700,12.635269,12.647841,12.660425,12.673029,12.685661,12.698330,12.711042,12.723808,12.736635,12.749533,12.762512,12.775580,12.788749,12.802029,12.815432,12.828969,12.842653,12.856499,12.870520,12.884733,12.899155,12.913803,12.928699,12.943864,12.959323,12.975103,12.991233,13.007747,13.024682,13.042081,13.059993,13.078473,13.097584,13.117401,13.138013,13.159522,13.182056,13.205765,13.230840,13.257517,13.286104,13.317002,13.350760,13.388149,13.430312,13.479050,13.537469,13.611703,13.717059,13.920495
 powerlaw_ou_param,1460,2030-09-22,11.556555,11.767714,11.877071,11.954123,12.014760,12.065348,12.109112,12.147921,12.182960,12.215032,12.244703,12.272394,12.298420,12.323030,12.346419,12.368745,12.390139,12.410709,12.430546,12.449727,12.468318,12.486378,12.503957,12.521098,12.537840,12.554219,12.570265,12.586006,12.601467,12.616672,12.631641,12.646393,12.660947,12.675318,12.689522,12.703573,12.717485,12.731269,12.744938,12.758503,12.771974,12.785362,12.798676,12.811926,12.825121,12.838270,12.851382,12.864465,12.877527,12.890576,12.903622,12.916672,12.929734,12.942816,12.955928,12.969077,12.982272,12.995522,13.008837,13.022225,13.035696,13.049260,13.062929,13.076714,13.090625,13.104676,13.118880,13.133252,13.147805,13.162558,13.177527,13.192731,13.208193,13.223934,13.239979,13.256358,13.273100,13.290241,13.307820,13.325880,13.344472,13.363653,13.383489,13.404059,13.425453,13.447780,13.471168,13.495778,13.521804,13.549495,13.579167,13.611238,13.646278,13.685086,13.728850,13.779439,13.840076,13.917127,14.026484,14.237643
 cycle_on_powerlaw,30,2026-10-23,11.013061,11.065946,11.093335,11.112633,11.127820,11.140490,11.151451,11.161171,11.169946,11.177979,11.185410,11.192345,11.198864,11.205027,11.210885,11.216477,11.221835,11.226987,11.231955,11.236759,11.241416,11.245939,11.250341,11.254634,11.258828,11.262930,11.266948,11.270891,11.274763,11.278571,11.282320,11.286015,11.289660,11.293259,11.296817,11.300336,11.303820,11.307273,11.310696,11.314093,11.317467,11.320820,11.324155,11.327473,11.330778,11.334071,11.337355,11.340632,11.343903,11.347172,11.350439,11.353707,11.356979,11.360256,11.363539,11.366833,11.370137,11.373456,11.376791,11.380144,11.383518,11.386915,11.390338,11.393791,11.397275,11.400794,11.404351,11.407951,11.411596,11.415291,11.419040,11.422848,11.426720,11.430662,11.434681,11.438783,11.442977,11.447270,11.451672,11.456195,11.460852,11.465656,11.470624,11.475776,11.481134,11.486726,11.492583,11.498747,11.505265,11.512201,11.519632,11.527664,11.536440,11.546160,11.557121,11.569791,11.584978,11.604276,11.631665,11.684550
 cycle_on_powerlaw,91,2026-12-23,10.794570,10.886678,10.934380,10.967990,10.994440,11.016507,11.035597,11.052525,11.067809,11.081799,11.094742,11.106821,11.118173,11.128908,11.139110,11.148849,11.158181,11.167154,11.175807,11.184174,11.192283,11.200161,11.207829,11.215306,11.222609,11.229753,11.236753,11.243619,11.250363,11.256996,11.263525,11.269960,11.276308,11.282577,11.288773,11.294902,11.300970,11.306983,11.312946,11.318863,11.324739,11.330579,11.336386,11.342166,11.347922,11.353657,11.359377,11.365083,11.370781,11.376474,11.382164,11.387856,11.393554,11.399261,11.404980,11.410716,11.416472,11.422251,11.428059,11.433899,11.439775,11.445692,11.451654,11.457667,11.463735,11.469864,11.476060,11.482329,11.488677,11.495113,11.501642,11.508274,11.515019,11.521885,11.528884,11.536028,11.543332,11.550808,11.558476,11.566354,11.574464,11.582831,11.591484,11.600456,11.609788,11.619527,11.629729,11.640464,11.651817,11.663896,11.676838,11.690828,11.706112,11.723041,11.742131,11.764198,11.790648,11.824258,11.871959,11.964068
 cycle_on_powerlaw,182,2027-03-24,10.727596,10.857857,10.925317,10.972849,11.010255,11.041463,11.068460,11.092400,11.114016,11.133800,11.152104,11.169186,11.185241,11.200422,11.214850,11.228623,11.241821,11.254510,11.266747,11.278579,11.290048,11.301189,11.312033,11.322607,11.332935,11.343039,11.352937,11.362648,11.372186,11.381565,11.390799,11.399900,11.408878,11.417743,11.426505,11.435173,11.443755,11.452258,11.460690,11.469058,11.477368,11.485627,11.493840,11.502014,11.510154,11.518266,11.526354,11.534424,11.542482,11.550532,11.558580,11.566630,11.574688,11.582758,11.590847,11.598958,11.607098,11.615272,11.623485,11.631744,11.640054,11.648422,11.656854,11.665357,11.673939,11.682607,11.691369,11.700235,11.709213,11.718313,11.727547,11.736927,11.746465,11.756175,11.766073,11.776177,11.786505,11.797079,11.807923,11.819064,11.830533,11.842366,11.854602,11.867292,11.880489,11.894262,11.908690,11.923871,11.939927,11.957009,11.975313,11.995097,12.016712,12.040653,12.067650,12.098857,12.136263,12.183795,12.251255,12.381516
 cycle_on_powerlaw,365,2027-09-23,10.459584,10.644053,10.739588,10.806900,10.859873,10.904067,10.942299,10.976203,11.006813,11.034831,11.060752,11.084943,11.107680,11.129179,11.149611,11.169115,11.187805,11.205775,11.223105,11.239861,11.256103,11.271880,11.287237,11.302211,11.316837,11.331146,11.345164,11.358915,11.372422,11.385705,11.398782,11.411669,11.424384,11.436938,11.449347,11.461622,11.473775,11.485817,11.497759,11.509609,11.521377,11.533073,11.544704,11.556280,11.567807,11.579294,11.590748,11.602177,11.613588,11.624989,11.636385,11.647786,11.659197,11.670626,11.682080,11.693567,11.705095,11.716670,11.728301,11.739997,11.751765,11.763616,11.775557,11.787599,11.799752,11.812027,11.824436,11.836991,11.849705,11.862592,11.875669,11.888952,11.902459,11.916211,11.930228,11.944537,11.959163,11.974137,11.989494,12.005271,12.021513,12.038270,12.055599,12.073569,12.092259,12.111763,12.132196,12.153695,12.176431,12.200622,12.226543,12.254561,12.285171,12.319075,12.357307,12.401501,12.454474,12.521787,12.617321,12.801790
 cycle_on_powerlaw,730,2028-09-22,10.483953,10.744833,10.879939,10.975133,11.050048,11.112548,11.166616,11.214563,11.257853,11.297476,11.334134,11.368345,11.400499,11.430904,11.459799,11.487383,11.513814,11.539227,11.563735,11.587432,11.610402,11.632714,11.654432,11.675609,11.696293,11.716528,11.736352,11.755800,11.774902,11.793686,11.812180,11.830406,11.848387,11.866142,11.883690,11.901050,11.918237,11.935267,11.952154,11.968913,11.985556,12.002096,12.018545,12.034916,12.051218,12.067463,12.083662,12.099825,12.115962,12.132085,12.148202,12.164325,12.180462,12.196626,12.212824,12.229070,12.245372,12.261742,12.278191,12.294731,12.311374,12.328133,12.345020,12.362050,12.379237,12.396597,12.414146,12.431901,12.449881,12.468107,12.486601,12.505386,12.524488,12.543935,12.563759,12.583994,12.604679,12.625856,12.647573,12.669885,12.692855,12.716552,12.741060,12.766473,12.792905,12.820488,12.849384,12.879788,12.911943,12.946153,12.982811,13.022434,13.065724,13.113671,13.167740,13.230240,13.305154,13.400349,13.535454,13.796334
 cycle_on_powerlaw,1095,2029-09-22,10.671517,10.991027,11.156497,11.273086,11.364838,11.441384,11.507604,11.566327,11.619346,11.667874,11.712771,11.754670,11.794052,11.831289,11.866679,11.900461,11.932833,11.963958,11.993973,12.022997,12.051128,12.078456,12.105054,12.130990,12.156324,12.181107,12.205386,12.229204,12.252599,12.275605,12.298255,12.320578,12.342599,12.364345,12.385837,12.407098,12.428148,12.449005,12.469688,12.490213,12.510597,12.530854,12.551000,12.571050,12.591015,12.610912,12.630751,12.650547,12.670311,12.690057,12.709797,12.729543,12.749307,12.769103,12.788943,12.808839,12.828805,12.848854,12.869000,12.889257,12.909641,12.930166,12.950849,12.971706,12.992756,13.014017,13.035510,13.057255,13.079277,13.101599,13.124249,13.147256,13.170650,13.194468,13.218748,13.243531,13.268864,13.294800,13.321399,13.348726,13.376857,13.405881,13.435896,13.467021,13.499393,13.533175,13.568565,13.605803,13.645184,13.687083,13.731980,13.780508,13.833527,13.892250,13.958470,14.035017,14.126768,14.243357,14.408827,14.728338
 cycle_on_powerlaw,1460,2030-09-22,10.110988,10.479927,10.670995,10.805621,10.911566,10.999954,11.076419,11.144226,11.205447,11.261482,11.313325,11.361706,11.407180,11.450178,11.491042,11.530051,11.567431,11.603371,11.638030,11.671543,11.704026,11.735581,11.766294,11.796243,11.825495,11.854112,11.882147,11.909650,11.936664,11.963230,11.989384,12.015159,12.040588,12.065697,12.090515,12.115065,12.139371,12.163455,12.187337,12.211038,12.234575,12.257966,12.281229,12.304380,12.327434,12.350408,12.373317,12.396175,12.418997,12.441798,12.464591,12.487392,12.510214,12.533072,12.555981,12.578955,12.602010,12.625160,12.648423,12.671814,12.695351,12.719052,12.742934,12.767018,12.791324,12.815874,12.840692,12.865801,12.891230,12.917005,12.943159,12.969725,12.996739,13.024242,13.052277,13.080894,13.110146,13.140095,13.170808,13.202363,13.234846,13.268360,13.303018,13.338958,13.376338,13.415347,13.456212,13.499210,13.544683,13.593064,13.644907,13.700942,13.762163,13.829970,13.906435,13.994823,14.100768,14.235394,14.426462,14.795401
@@ -36,3 +36,14 @@ clean:
 # Run A/B experiments on development data (default: all)
 ab *names:
    python -m btcmodel ab {{ names }}
 # Record tracked models' forecasts for the forward test (commit the new file)
 snapshot:
    python -m btcmodel snapshot
 # Score recorded forecasts whose target dates have passed
 forward:
    python -m btcmodel forward
 # The weekly routine: new prices, a new snapshot, and scores so far
 weekly: update snapshot forward
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
 import pytest
 from btcmodel import forward
 from btcmodel.evaluate import HORIZONS, score
 from btcmodel.models import MODELS
 from .test_models import synthetic_prices
 MODELS_UNDER_TEST = [MODELS["random_walk"], MODELS["powerlaw"]]
@pytest.fixture
 def prices():
    return synthetic_prices(lambda day: 0.001 + 0 * day, end="2025-03-31", noise=0.03)
 def test_snapshot_records_every_model_and_horizon(prices, tmp_path):
    history = prices.loc[:"2024-11-26"]
    path = forward.snapshot(history, MODELS_UNDER_TEST, tmp_path, pd.Timestamp("2024-11-27"))
    recorded = pd.read_csv(path)
    assert path.name == "2024-11-26.csv"
    assert len(recorded) == len(MODELS_UNDER_TEST) * len(HORIZONS)
    assert recorded.target.iloc[0] == "2024-12-26"
 def test_snapshot_refuses_stale_data_and_duplicates(prices, tmp_path):
    history = prices.loc[:"2024-11-26"]
    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="real time"):
        forward.snapshot(history, MODELS_UNDER_TEST, tmp_path, pd.Timestamp("2024-12-10"))
    forward.snapshot(history, MODELS_UNDER_TEST, tmp_path, pd.Timestamp("2024-11-27"))
    with pytest.raises(FileExistsError):
        forward.snapshot(history, MODELS_UNDER_TEST, tmp_path, pd.Timestamp("2024-11-27"))
 def test_scores_only_due_horizons_and_match_the_backtest(prices, tmp_path):
    history = prices.loc[:"2024-11-26"]
    forward.snapshot(history, MODELS_UNDER_TEST, tmp_path, pd.Timestamp("2024-11-27"))
    assert forward.score_snapshots(prices.loc[:"2024-12-20"], tmp_path).empty
    assert forward.next_due(prices.loc[:"2024-12-20"], tmp_path) == pd.Timestamp("2024-12-26")
    scores = forward.score_snapshots(prices, tmp_path)
    assert sorted(scores.horizon.unique()) == [30, 91]
    model = MODELS["powerlaw"]
    horizons = np.array([30, 91])
    direct = score(
        "powerlaw",
        model.forecast(history, horizons),
        np.log(
            prices.close.loc[history.index[-1] + pd.to_timedelta(horizons, unit="D")]
        ).to_numpy(),
    )
    recorded = scores[scores.model == "powerlaw"].sort_values("horizon")
    np.testing.assert_allclose(recorded.crps, direct.crps, atol=1e-5)